Caesar Alesia Replay : Mobile Bay, Turn VIII

After this turn I believe Vercingetorix cannot escape via Zones VI and VII. I have gotten in enough power -- and enough killing missile units -- where I need them.

He exited units at the III, IV seam and now has a more sizable off board force. This seems coordinated with Vercingetorix's position. Hank has Vercingetorix carefully placed so he can either shift back into Alesia in one move -- potentially driving for another escape route as far away as the opposite side of the board on the next move -- or drive across the river if the main attack succeeds. The situation = Forces just exited around the III, IV seam and 4 Alesia warbands probing south. It's not worth the distraction to try and stop the 4 marauders. I can loosen up enough cohorts for a 2 to 1 surround if they attempt to penetrate further. This is a perfect example of the type of trade off the Roman has to make -- who do you really need to stop?

In this game it depends on what Hank is really up to. I think it is one of two things:

1. The III, IV exit is a deception. His secondary attack will come at IX, X -- especially as I have not prevented the 4 Alesia warbands probing the south from gaining the inner ramparts.
2. He is going to attack V or reinforce VI. This I think I can handle. Oddly enough I think I can handle it however only as long as I continue to hold him in Zone III. If he begins to make progress in III and attacks V, VI he would stand a good chance of breaking my line. I am defending forts throughout the board only with "just enough" force to prevent a 3 to 1. # to 1 being the first odds column at which the Gauls can get an advance in to the fort and destroy it. On the forts in the abandoned sector I will simply have to risk the 1 to 1 surround with its 1 in 6 chance of a DR1 -- will try to prevent the 3 to 1 however.

I think my assessment is correct, I can contain Gaul option #2. Hank probably knows this as well. Even more telling is the fact tha if he were positoned to attack at Zone V he would have done so already -- now is too late. I believe he will do #1 -- come in on IX, X.